Psychology

The 'hot hand' was declared a myth in 1985 — then the math itself turned out wrong

A famous 1985 study found no evidence that basketball players who'd made recent shots were 'due' to keep scoring, and the 'hot hand fallacy' became textbook psychology. In 2018, economists Joshua Miller and Adam Sanjurjo showed the original analysis had a subtle statistical bias masking a real, if modest, hot-hand effect. Decades of confident debunking rested on an intuition about coin flips that was itself wrong.

Joshua B. Miller and Adam Sanjurjo, Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? — Econometrica, 2018

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