Psychology

After the fact, you'll swear you predicted it all along

Baruch Fischhoff asked people to estimate the odds of different outcomes before Nixon's 1972 trip to China, then asked them again afterward to recall their original predictions. People systematically misremembered themselves as having been more confident about whatever actually happened than they really were. Hindsight bias quietly rewrites your memory of your own uncertainty.

Baruch Fischhoff, Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty — Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1975

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