An inverted yield curve has preceded nearly every US recession since the 1950s
Normally long-term bonds pay more interest than short-term ones, since lenders want compensation for tying up their money longer. When short-term rates rise above long-term rates - an inversion - it usually means investors expect rates, and the economy, to weaken later. Economist Campbell Harvey first documented this pattern in his 1986 PhD dissertation, and it has preceded every US recession since, with only one false signal in the mid-1960s.