If a lobbying law could win you millions, why does lobbying for it cost so little?

Economist Gordon Tullock noticed something odd about rent-seeking: when a government decision is worth a fortune to whoever can swing it, basic economic logic suggests competitors should spend close to that fortune trying to win it. In practice, real-world lobbying spending is usually a small fraction of what's at stake. Economists still debate why; explanations range from the risk of being caught, to reputational costs, to the difficulty of guaranteeing an outcome even after paying for it.

— Gordon Tullock, The Welfare Costs of Tariffs, Monopolies, and Theft — Western Economic Journal, 1967