An airline invites two travelers to name their price — honestly

An airline loses two travelers' identical antiques and doesn't know their true value. Each privately writes a claim between $2 and $100. Matching claims are both paid in full; mismatched claims are both paid the lower number, plus a $2 bonus to whoever wrote lower and a $2 penalty to whoever wrote higher. What should a perfectly rational traveler write?

Reveal the answer

Game-theoretic logic of endless undercutting drives the unique Nash equilibrium all the way down to $2 for both travelers — yet almost everyone who actually plays writes close to $100 and does far better than 'rational' play predicts. Devised by economist Kaushik Basu in 1994 as a case where real human behavior beats game theory's own prescription.

— Kaushik Basu, The Traveler's Dilemma: Paradoxes of Rationality in Game Theory — American Economic Review, 1994; popularized in Scientific American, 2007

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