Why every renovation runs late — even when you know better

Ask people how long a project will take and they'll lowball it — even after admitting past projects like it ran long. Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky named this the 'planning fallacy': we picture the best-case path to finishing instead of consulting the track record of similar efforts. It's why renovations, launches and term papers reliably blow their deadlines.

— Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures — Decision Research technical report, 1977; Judgment Under Uncertainty, 1982

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