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Daniel Ellsberg: 2 puzzles worth knowing

2 puzzles from Daniel Ellsberg, each explained in a minute and credited to the original work. Free on Savvy.

• People will bet on a coin they trust over odds they simply can't calculate

  You're offered two urns to bet on. Urn A has exactly 50 red balls and 50 black balls. Urn B has 100 red and black balls in a completely unknown ratio. You must bet on a colour bein…

  — Daniel Ellsberg, Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms

• Two urns, same odds on paper, and almost everyone still prefers one

  Urn A has 50 red balls and 50 black balls. Urn B has 100 balls total, red and black in an unknown ratio. You win money if you draw a colour you bet on in advance. Most people, offe…

  — Daniel Ellsberg, Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms

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